Run to the AFL 2014 Finals: How Your Team Will Fare

Run to the AFL finals 2014: How Your Team Will Fare

Port Adelaide has already proved the surprise packet of 2014. But as the AFL season enters its home stretch, the Power is in danger of not getting the reward its efforts deserve.

Ken Hinkley’s side barely put a foot wrong for the first half of the season, but with the race for the top four as tight as in recent memory, its recent lapse has the potential to prove very costly.indeed.

After 12 rounds, Port was two games clear in top spot. It’s still third despite having lost three of its past four matches. But in a cruel twist of fate, the Power could well end up losing the all-important double chance in the last round of the home-and-away season.

Round 23 serves up what surely is football’s biggest challenge, taking on the defensive steel of Fremantle on the Dockers’ own turf at Patersons Stadium. That game already looks like a de facto final, with a top-four spot going to the victor and the loser having to come from fifth.

For Port Adelaide, the Fremantle clash is one of two games set to determine its finals fate -  the other three weeks earlier at home against Sydney. On form, it’s difficult to tip a Port win in either game which, by my count, sentences it to fifth spot.

I’ve been through the run home of the top-eight teams plus those of the only two outside the eight still with some sort of finals chance - Adelaide and Essendon - and it’s the Power for which the bell tolls if it can’t upset either Sydney or Fremantle.one of the Swans or Dockers.

Fremantle was always going to be a big danger in a favourable home stretch, and so it’s proving. Ross Lyon’s side has won seven on the trot and is at short odds to make it 10 before a potentially season-defining clash with Geelong at Simonds Stadium, the scene of their memorable qualifying final win last year.

Another victory there and Freo could even afford to drop the Port game and still finish in the top four. But the incentive for a win would be considerable, a finish of first or second and the right to host two home finals.

While the Dockers are more than 4 per cent behind Hawthorn, I reckon they might be able to win big enough against weaker opponents to close the gap and slip past the Hawks.

Port Adelaide is one of six final-eight contenders that has to face two top-four teams - Sydney, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Geelong and Collingwood are the others. The Dockers are the only side I’ve got winning both those engagements - home dates against the Hawks and Power.

And the obvious beneficiary of all that top-four civil war is Geelong. After having slipped from the top bracket in its round-14 loss to Gold Coast, I’ve got Geelong sneaking in again at the death because of Port’s stumble and what should be a very winnable game on its own turf against the Brisbane Lions.

That, of course, is providing the Cats beat at least one of Fremantle at home or Hawthorn at the MCG in the penultimate round of the season.

And while in premiership terms, just who fills the last few spots in the eight appears of academic interest only, things look headed for a pretty tight finish there, too.

Collingwood, despite its recent slump, a critical game against Essendon on Sunday and tests against Port Adelaide and Hawthorn, will still make it by my calculations, as will a first-timer in Gold Coast.

Having got through a nightmarish six-week stretch of tough games, things get a bit more manageable for the Suns now, with the next month serving up the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, St Kilda and Carlton, which should give Gold Coast a little breathing space before a couple more toughies.

Adelaide and Essendon are pushing, but the next fortnight against Hawthorn and Collingwood, the latter at the MCG, will be telling for the Crows, while the Bombers have the Pies, Sydney at the SCG and Gold Coast to handle if they’re going to make it.

The Crows and Dons might have left their run a fraction late. But neither would be nearly as stiff to miss out as Port Adelaide would be to miss a double chance it seemed to have firmly in its grasp for so long.

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Freemantle Dockers Brace for AFL 'War' With Sydney Swans

Fremantle AFL skipper Matthew Pavlich says he respects Sydney's culture, and how they go about their football.

Fremantle skipper Matthew Pavlich says his side are preparing for "footy war" ahead of Saturday night's AFL preliminary final against Sydney at Patersons Stadium.

The Dockers are strong favourites to win the match given their hot recent form and home ground advantage.

In contrast, Sydney have been ravaged by injuries, with key players Adam Goodes, Kurt Tippett, Rhyce Shaw, Tom Mitchell and Sam Reid all out of action.

However, Pavlich said the defending premiers shouldn't be taken lightly, especially given their reputation for playing a hard-nosed, contested brand of football.

"You admire a lot of teams in the AFL but certainly Sydney - their culture, leaders, the way they go about their business - we very much respect what they're about," Pavlich said on Thursday.

"And that's why we're preparing ourselves for what we call footy war, because it's going to go until the end.

"They are contested, big-bodied players.

"What they're about is exactly what we'd like to be about as well. We understand how hard a game it's going to be."

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Fans Count Down to the AFL Grand Final

Having trouble picking which team to barrack for in the grand final? The former Hawthorn president Jeff Kennett is here to help.

 

Kennett, who had vowed to keep a low profile after relinquishing his stewardship of the Hawks this year, was conspicuous by his presence on the ground just after the final siren of the preliminary final.

Not content with hob-nobbing with exhausted players after their thrilling victory over the gallant Crows, Kennett hit the airwaves this morning, keen to remind the footy world that his vision for the Hawks is near to fruition. 

"You've got to remember guys, that in 2007 we outlined our five-year plan for the club which some of you commentators thought was arrogant, when we said five years, two premierships, 50,000 members," Kennett told SEN radio Monday. 

"Well this is the fifth year of that business plan and I think we should have won the grand final last year … Our membership now stands at over 60,000. If the boys can bring home the bacon on the weekend, that business plan will have lived its life." 

Hawthorn didn't play in the 2011 grand final, having faltered in the preliminary final after leading by 17 points at the final change. 

Asked whether he was going the "early Hawk", Kennett backed down somewhat, admitting he thought the 2012 decider would be a "gladiatorial-style contest". 

"Leadership and success … depends on succession and we've got very good people at Hawthorn – my successor is well qualified, a good board, good CEO, good coach and good players. If you have the fundamentals right, at least you give yourself the opportunity of performing on the field. And hopefully next weekend, hopefully, they will bring home our 11th trophy". 

Legend puts Hawthorn before family 

Hawthorn legend John Kennedy could never be cast as a villain, but the ex-Hawk premiership player and coach is just as partisan as Kennett. 

Kennedy's grandson Josh is playing for Sydney on Saturday, after starting his career with the Hawks. But when Robert Walls put it to Kennedy senior that he would be happy no matter which team won the grand final, he was quickly rebuked. 

Jeff Kennett congratulates Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson after the Hawks beat Adelaide on Saturday.

Hawthorn trains at Waverley Park this afternoon

Read on

 

Grand Final Preview: Collingwood v Geelong

VENUE & TIME: MCG, Saturday, 1st October, 2.30pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 221, Collingwood 126, Geelong 94, Drawn 1
LAST TIME: Geelong 22.17 (149) def Collingwood 8.5 (53), Round 24, 2011 at the MCG

WALKING WOUNDED: There are lingering doubts over the fitness of key Magpies Darren Jolly and Ben Reid, both of whom were hobbled by adductor strains during the club's preliminary final win over Hawthorn. The only other names on the club's official injury list are long-termers Nathan Brown (knee) and Brad Dick (knee). The focus at Geelong is fixed on Steve Johnson who wrenched his left knee against the Eagles last Saturday. It's likely Johnson will be named and given until the very last minute to prove his fitness. Team-mates who can't be considered include Nathan Vardy (hip), Daniel Menzel (knee) and Mitch Brown (shoulder).

FORM:
Collingwood's Past Five:
Preliminary Final: Win, 10.8 (68) - 9.11 (65) v Hawthorn, MCG
Qualifying Final: Win, 12.10 (82) - 9.8 (62) v West Coast, MCG
Round 24: Loss, 8.5 (53) - 22.17 (149) v Geelong, MCG
Round 23: Win, 20. 12 (132) - 8.4 (52) v Fremantle, Patersons' Stadium
Round 22: Win, 14.18 (102) - 13.6 (84) v Brisbane, MCG

Geelong's Past Five:
Preliminary Final: Win, 17.15 (117) - 10.9 (69) v West Coast, MCG
Qualifying Final: Win, 14.14 (98) - 9.13 (67) v Hawthorn, MCG
Round 24: Win, 22.17 (149) - 8.5 (53) v Collingwood, MCG
Round 23: Bye
Round 22: Loss, 12.14 (86) - 15.9 (99) v Sydney, Skilled Stadium

WHO'S HOT: There was no more effective player for Collingwood in last Friday's thriller against Hawthorn than Travis Cloke. Eleven of the 2011 All Australian centre half-forward's 19 disposals came from marks and he converted three of them into goals. James Kelly celebrated his elevation to the All Australian team earlier in the week with a team-high 29 touches for Geelong in Saturday's preliminary final win over the Eagles. The 27-year-old, who's favoured to win the Cats' best and fairest, also claimed five marks and laid six tackles in a super all-round performance.

WE THINK: The Cats have heaps going for them - a settled, experienced side, two wins from two against Collingwood this season and far superior form to Saturday's opponents' over the past six weeks or so. Coach Chris Scott has downplayed the significance of victories by three points over the Pies in Round 8 and by 96 in Round 24.

The first, he said, was too long ago and, in the second, there was nothing at stake. Interestingly, the Cats benefited from the bye in both matches but they're still entitled to draw plenty of confidence from both results. Sure, there's a fitness query over Steve Johnson, but the remainder of his Geelong team-mates escaped last Saturday's easy win over the Eagles bruise-free. Collingwood, in contrast, copped a nasty scare and a battering from the Hawks. Ben Reid and Darren Jolly were banged up and, while they trained strongly on Wednesday, there must still be a query over their fitness.

There's a query too over the form of Alan Didak, Dayne Beams, Steele Sidebottom, Leigh Brown and Jarryd Blair whose output has fallen away significantly this season. As the titleholders, the Pies know what it takes to get the job done, but the Cats aren't exactly novices. Seventeen members of their preliminary final line-up have premiership medals to prove it.

Mick Malthouse's footballing life flashed before his tear-filled eyes last Friday night, so he knows what to expect when it happens again on Saturday, and it will. There'll be no fairytale finish for the veteran coach, instead a fairytale start for the novice. It's Geelong by 23 points.

The AFL Grand Final We Had to Have

So, it has come to this: Collingwood against Geelong. It is the grand final we had to have. The two best teams of the season will, somewhat fittingly, end the season at the ‘G.

This game takes a quite different meaning for both sides. For Geelong, it is a chance to prove many wrong. For Collingwood, it is a chance to go back-to-back and to farewell Mick Malthouse on a high note.

THE BUILD-UP

Both sides have had very different build-ups up until this point. Collingwood have had to go through two brutal contests against West Coast and Hawthorn. You can argue that the Pies have had the better preparation, as they have the feel for a close contest. Or you can argue that they have battered in the past couple of games, but especially by the Hawks.

Last week would have given Collingwood confidence and belief that they can come back from any situation. But what is concerning about Collingwood’s build-up is that they haven’t been at their best for the past two months. There has been a drop in their domineering best, whether they can rediscover that this week…who knows?

Geelong has had a very solid lead in to the upcoming week. Chris Scott’s men have been building up to this week all season and now it is here. They know what it is like to be in the final, but so do Collingwood.

It is a very confident side from Kardinia Park. They are very calm and confident in their abilities. They had a breeze of a prelim against West Coast, and that would play into their hands. They won’t take anything for granted or panic, just the calmness and confidence they have had all season.

THE MIDFIELD

In my view, the game will be won in the midfield. It will pit the Cats mids Bartel, Ling, Kelly, Corey and Selwood against Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Thomas and Wellingham. One area I found Collingwood exposed by the Hawks was in the middle at the stoppages and clearances. The likes of Sewell, Mitchell and Lewis were brilliant in and under all game. Much will rely on Selwood winning the ball and Kelly and Bartel using it. It will be fascinating to watch.

Swan and Pendlebury are all class. Swan runs all day and Pendlebury can do it all. But whoever gets first use in the middle will go a long way in deciding the decider.

The rucks will be a contest. Geelong has the edge in this area. Ottens is a proven finals performer, and can go forward and cause some trouble. West is a youngster and is an able back-up to Ottens. There is a cloud over Jolly, there is doubt over whether he will play. Doc Larkins has rated him a 25 percent chance to play. He hasn’t been at this best for most of this season, and Geelong will look to expose that.

THE FORWARDS

Which teams forwards can have the bigger impact? The tag teams of Cloke/Dawes and Podisiadly/Hawkins (and at times Ottens) will be a key. Cloke has been impressive. His kicking has improved and his workrate has gotten better. His marking is the forward line’s greatest asset.

Dawes should be ready to go after getting some touch back after a long time out with injury. Collingwood’s smalls in Didak and Blair, will be at the feet of the big boys. Didak hasn’t looked at his cocky best this year, and looked forlorn sitting in the subs vest against Hawthorn. He will need to fire-up.

Podsiadly, like Cloke, can take a grab. He will be needed to kick some goals. Hawkins has come a long way this season, but especially in the finals. He kicked a crucial goal in the Qualifier against Hawthorn and has looked increasingly confident and aggressive. He has justified his selection over Cam Mooney.

The Geelong smalls in Johnson, Varcoe, Stokes and Christensen have combined to feed off the crumbs left by the J-Pod. Johnson will be a key here, but who knows if he will play? They will need him to play and I think he will.

THE DEFENDERS

The famed Collingwood group defence has been a key to their success. Suspension and injury has looked to undermine them, but it hasn’t. Shaw and Maxwell haven’t missed a beat, despite missing through different parts of the season. Ben Reid has been injured at the worst part of the season and there are doubts over whether he will play.

Geelong’s defenders in Scarlett, Enright, Mackie and Taylor are experienced campaigners. Their ability to rebound from defensive 50 has been their trademark for the past four years. Wojcinski has been a key to that. The contest here will be who rebounds the best and who can transition from defence to attack more effectively. I really can’t split them here.

This is going to be fascinating and I can’t wait.

The Irish are Coming – Another Major Events Win for Melbourne

Melbourne has secured the right to hold another key major event with the first test of the 2011 International Rules Series to be played at Etihad Stadium on Friday 28 October this year.
The International Rules Series between Australia and Ireland provides elite footballers in the AFL and Ireland's Gaelic Athletic Association competition with an opportunity to represent their country on the football field.

Minister for Tourism and Major Events Louise Asher said she was delighted by the news.

"Major events contribute to the vibrancy and liveability of Victoria. The Victorian Government is proud to deliver great sporting events. Victoria's award-winning major events calendar offers all Australians the chance to experience the world's best in sport, culture and entertainment," Ms Asher said.