Grand Final Preview: Collingwood v Geelong

VENUE & TIME: MCG, Saturday, 1st October, 2.30pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 221, Collingwood 126, Geelong 94, Drawn 1
LAST TIME: Geelong 22.17 (149) def Collingwood 8.5 (53), Round 24, 2011 at the MCG

WALKING WOUNDED: There are lingering doubts over the fitness of key Magpies Darren Jolly and Ben Reid, both of whom were hobbled by adductor strains during the club's preliminary final win over Hawthorn. The only other names on the club's official injury list are long-termers Nathan Brown (knee) and Brad Dick (knee). The focus at Geelong is fixed on Steve Johnson who wrenched his left knee against the Eagles last Saturday. It's likely Johnson will be named and given until the very last minute to prove his fitness. Team-mates who can't be considered include Nathan Vardy (hip), Daniel Menzel (knee) and Mitch Brown (shoulder).

FORM:
Collingwood's Past Five:
Preliminary Final: Win, 10.8 (68) - 9.11 (65) v Hawthorn, MCG
Qualifying Final: Win, 12.10 (82) - 9.8 (62) v West Coast, MCG
Round 24: Loss, 8.5 (53) - 22.17 (149) v Geelong, MCG
Round 23: Win, 20. 12 (132) - 8.4 (52) v Fremantle, Patersons' Stadium
Round 22: Win, 14.18 (102) - 13.6 (84) v Brisbane, MCG

Geelong's Past Five:
Preliminary Final: Win, 17.15 (117) - 10.9 (69) v West Coast, MCG
Qualifying Final: Win, 14.14 (98) - 9.13 (67) v Hawthorn, MCG
Round 24: Win, 22.17 (149) - 8.5 (53) v Collingwood, MCG
Round 23: Bye
Round 22: Loss, 12.14 (86) - 15.9 (99) v Sydney, Skilled Stadium

WHO'S HOT: There was no more effective player for Collingwood in last Friday's thriller against Hawthorn than Travis Cloke. Eleven of the 2011 All Australian centre half-forward's 19 disposals came from marks and he converted three of them into goals. James Kelly celebrated his elevation to the All Australian team earlier in the week with a team-high 29 touches for Geelong in Saturday's preliminary final win over the Eagles. The 27-year-old, who's favoured to win the Cats' best and fairest, also claimed five marks and laid six tackles in a super all-round performance.

WE THINK: The Cats have heaps going for them - a settled, experienced side, two wins from two against Collingwood this season and far superior form to Saturday's opponents' over the past six weeks or so. Coach Chris Scott has downplayed the significance of victories by three points over the Pies in Round 8 and by 96 in Round 24.

The first, he said, was too long ago and, in the second, there was nothing at stake. Interestingly, the Cats benefited from the bye in both matches but they're still entitled to draw plenty of confidence from both results. Sure, there's a fitness query over Steve Johnson, but the remainder of his Geelong team-mates escaped last Saturday's easy win over the Eagles bruise-free. Collingwood, in contrast, copped a nasty scare and a battering from the Hawks. Ben Reid and Darren Jolly were banged up and, while they trained strongly on Wednesday, there must still be a query over their fitness.

There's a query too over the form of Alan Didak, Dayne Beams, Steele Sidebottom, Leigh Brown and Jarryd Blair whose output has fallen away significantly this season. As the titleholders, the Pies know what it takes to get the job done, but the Cats aren't exactly novices. Seventeen members of their preliminary final line-up have premiership medals to prove it.

Mick Malthouse's footballing life flashed before his tear-filled eyes last Friday night, so he knows what to expect when it happens again on Saturday, and it will. There'll be no fairytale finish for the veteran coach, instead a fairytale start for the novice. It's Geelong by 23 points.

AFL Finals Melbourne: Grand Finalists Strive For More Balance in Attack

GEELONG did more than defeat Collingwood by 13 goals when the sides last met, not a month ago in round 24. In golfing parlance, the men in the hoops pulled out the driver and went long.

Long and precise 67 times, in fact, with an unexpected territory-over-possession strategy that peeled the Magpies open like an orange

AFL Finals Melbourne: Grand Finalists Strive For More Balance in Attack

Grand Finalists Strive For More Balance in Attack

GEELONG did more than defeat Collingwood by 13 goals when the sides last met, not a month ago in round 24. In golfing parlance, the men in the hoops pulled out the driver and went long.

Long and precise 67 times, in fact, with an unexpected territory-over-possession strategy that peeled the Magpies open like an orange.

It was a season-high, long-kicking record. That is, until the Cats came out the following week and went for distance 76 times against Hawthorn in the qualifying final, and then again on 75 occasions against West Coast in the preliminary final a fortnight later.

When Chris Scott succeeded Mark Thompson as coach almost 12 months ago, he went to considerable effort to respect not only what had been achieved before him but how.

He did, and still does, maintain that Thompson's once-brilliant handball game needed only updating and not an overhaul. Geelong, he said, would play the situation a little more -- go short or long, by foot or hand as circumstances dictated -- but not rush to abandon its high possession way.

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For much of the season this was reflected in the Cats play. They remained a relatively high possession side. Most weeks they handballed almost as often as they kicked the football, weaving their way to victory in a manner not dissimilar to their recent past.

They were certainly better equipped to deal with the press, the suffocating strategy devised to shut down their audacious high-numbers game, and demonstrated an ability to wrestle four points out of the opposition. They defeated, for instance, St Kilda in round one with just six goals, once a return expected by the quarter, and won six games by less than two goals.

But of late there has been a radical departure from the side's game as it was known, as it existed as recently five or six weeks ago.

Since the Collingwood match, the Cats have been the most direct, long-kicking team in the competition. And with this change, their possession numbers have fallen dramatically. Geelong averaged 424 touches a game in 2010. For much of this year that average has been 394. Over the past five weeks the average has fallen to 352.

A kick-to-handball ratio that was still relatively low (1.2 to 1) has, over the last three weeks, begun to approach 1.8 to 1. No one has recorded higher this season.

Against Hawthorn in the qualifying final, the Cats pumped out only 103 handballs. Of their 361 possessions against the Eagles last weekend only 139 of them were recorded by hand.

Scott was less than expansive yesterday about this U-turn in his side's game.

"In terms of our attack we're trying to develop a really balanced form of offence and the last few weeks it's probably meant we've gone a little bit longer than previous to that," Scott said.

"(But) there's no reason why we can't go a little bit shorter. In essence, we try to play what's in front of us."

One of several theories as to why the Cats have changed so late in the season is that finals are "hot ball" games, in which intricate play can be broken down by the intensity and pressure. Players talk of finals as being so quick that afterwards they can scarcely recall what transpired.

As the theory goes, a longer, simpler game is less easily exploited.

Territory is gained with less risk.

The AFL Grand Final We Had to Have

So, it has come to this: Collingwood against Geelong. It is the grand final we had to have. The two best teams of the season will, somewhat fittingly, end the season at the ‘G.

This game takes a quite different meaning for both sides. For Geelong, it is a chance to prove many wrong. For Collingwood, it is a chance to go back-to-back and to farewell Mick Malthouse on a high note.

THE BUILD-UP

Both sides have had very different build-ups up until this point. Collingwood have had to go through two brutal contests against West Coast and Hawthorn. You can argue that the Pies have had the better preparation, as they have the feel for a close contest. Or you can argue that they have battered in the past couple of games, but especially by the Hawks.

Last week would have given Collingwood confidence and belief that they can come back from any situation. But what is concerning about Collingwood’s build-up is that they haven’t been at their best for the past two months. There has been a drop in their domineering best, whether they can rediscover that this week…who knows?

Geelong has had a very solid lead in to the upcoming week. Chris Scott’s men have been building up to this week all season and now it is here. They know what it is like to be in the final, but so do Collingwood.

It is a very confident side from Kardinia Park. They are very calm and confident in their abilities. They had a breeze of a prelim against West Coast, and that would play into their hands. They won’t take anything for granted or panic, just the calmness and confidence they have had all season.

THE MIDFIELD

In my view, the game will be won in the midfield. It will pit the Cats mids Bartel, Ling, Kelly, Corey and Selwood against Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Thomas and Wellingham. One area I found Collingwood exposed by the Hawks was in the middle at the stoppages and clearances. The likes of Sewell, Mitchell and Lewis were brilliant in and under all game. Much will rely on Selwood winning the ball and Kelly and Bartel using it. It will be fascinating to watch.

Swan and Pendlebury are all class. Swan runs all day and Pendlebury can do it all. But whoever gets first use in the middle will go a long way in deciding the decider.

The rucks will be a contest. Geelong has the edge in this area. Ottens is a proven finals performer, and can go forward and cause some trouble. West is a youngster and is an able back-up to Ottens. There is a cloud over Jolly, there is doubt over whether he will play. Doc Larkins has rated him a 25 percent chance to play. He hasn’t been at this best for most of this season, and Geelong will look to expose that.

THE FORWARDS

Which teams forwards can have the bigger impact? The tag teams of Cloke/Dawes and Podisiadly/Hawkins (and at times Ottens) will be a key. Cloke has been impressive. His kicking has improved and his workrate has gotten better. His marking is the forward line’s greatest asset.

Dawes should be ready to go after getting some touch back after a long time out with injury. Collingwood’s smalls in Didak and Blair, will be at the feet of the big boys. Didak hasn’t looked at his cocky best this year, and looked forlorn sitting in the subs vest against Hawthorn. He will need to fire-up.

Podsiadly, like Cloke, can take a grab. He will be needed to kick some goals. Hawkins has come a long way this season, but especially in the finals. He kicked a crucial goal in the Qualifier against Hawthorn and has looked increasingly confident and aggressive. He has justified his selection over Cam Mooney.

The Geelong smalls in Johnson, Varcoe, Stokes and Christensen have combined to feed off the crumbs left by the J-Pod. Johnson will be a key here, but who knows if he will play? They will need him to play and I think he will.

THE DEFENDERS

The famed Collingwood group defence has been a key to their success. Suspension and injury has looked to undermine them, but it hasn’t. Shaw and Maxwell haven’t missed a beat, despite missing through different parts of the season. Ben Reid has been injured at the worst part of the season and there are doubts over whether he will play.

Geelong’s defenders in Scarlett, Enright, Mackie and Taylor are experienced campaigners. Their ability to rebound from defensive 50 has been their trademark for the past four years. Wojcinski has been a key to that. The contest here will be who rebounds the best and who can transition from defence to attack more effectively. I really can’t split them here.

This is going to be fascinating and I can’t wait.